Why the Republicans will hold the Senate...and the House

My Picket column was published yestarday, which means I can now feel ok about posting it here:

Disgruntled GOP voters are threatening harsh action against the Republican Party which they believe has failed to represent them accurately in the twelve years since Newt Gingrich’s triumphant seizure of the United States Congress in 1994. They have fallen prey to what Washington Times writer Tony Blankley calls a “false syllogism.” They say, “1) Something must be done; 2) not voting is something; therefore, 3) I will not vote.” He says this is as stupid as if, “When offered by a car dealer 25 percent off on a car, [one] insists on paying the full factory recommended retail sticker price -- because he is damned if he will accept 25 percent when he deserves 30 percent off.”

Examination of the voter displeasure with the incumbent party can be focused on two specific items: the reason or cause of such disgruntlement, and the potential impact this “voter revenge” could have at the polls on November 7, 2006. First, we shall examine the source of unhappiness: Certainly, voters have a valid and understandable source for disproval when we consider the recent happenings in what the “main-stream media” has so affectionately dubbed ‘Foley-gate.’ Record spending (even if the deficit has been cut in half three years ahead of Bush’s schedule—something the media has paid virtually no attention to) also can be cited as a trouble spot. Despite calls for a comprehensive strategy to deal with the American immigration crisis—and make no mistake, it is a crisis—the Republican controlled Congress has a nearly non-existent immigration policy which adds to the anger. When we couple all of this with the belief that progress in Iraq is being bogged down, who can blame the average conservative voter for being less than enthused about sending the Republicans back to Congress?

So what we have here is a vague and generalized disapproval of the decisions made in Congress. Republicans are certainly not perfect, but conservative voters must consider the alternative? If they—we—are angry with GOP members in the House and Senate, we certainly should let our voices be heard, but to think that we’d be happier with the decisions made in a Congress controlled by the Democrats (with Nancy Pelosi as the Speaker of the House, third in line for the Presidency) is asinine. Rush Limbaugh has dubbed conservatives who believe that we should simply abstain from voting because we are angry as “cut and run conservatives.” He notes, “sit this one out if you’re unhappy with anything the President, House or Senate has done… show your patriotism by teaching them all a lesson….wait until you like everything Republicans do before you ever vote again.” Any conservative who acts in such a manner is exactly what Limbaugh has dubbed them: cut and run.

The real impact of this behavior will be seen on Decision Day 2006, when all truly patriotic Americans will head to the polls to cast their judgment on the Republican majority. Polls seem to indicate a slight lead for Democratic candidates in tight races, giving them a slight edge in predictions for the House. By most accounts, the Senate will remain in control of a slim majority of Republicans. These polls have led the majority of the main-stream media to declare victory for the Democrats and to say that such a victory is indicative of frustration throughout America at “corrupt Republicans.” Not all predictions are tilted in the Democrats’ favor, though. Barron’s Online Magazine says polls have it wrong. Based on race-by-race examination of campaign contributions, the report suggests that Republicans will maintain control of the House by one to eight seats and of the Senate by two to five seats. Examining campaign contributions, the report suggests, is the best way to examine grassroots support. The report accurately predicted Republican gains in 2002 and 2004. According to other statistics cited in the report, the candidate with the biggest campaign war-chest has one 98% of the elections in recent years.

The media has been quick to label this election a victory for the Democrats based on the widely held belief that the angry conservative base will abstain from voting. To believe that conservative electorate will fall victim to Blankley’s “false syllogism” is to assume that Republicans are stupid, but Republican voters aren’t stupid, and they won’t fall victim to such a fallacy. The conservative base will go to the polls on November 7. Conservatives, unlike some others, understand that there is too much at stake to risk allowing Nancy Pelosi to become Speaker of the House. Conservatives understand that, though they might not like every choice Republicans make, these choices are better than the alternative—or lack there of—offered by Democrats. It is because of this knowledge that the Republicans will maintain control of the United States Congress and will be poised to retain the Presidency in 2008.